Το πρόβλημα του πληθωρισμού στο ευρωσύστημα.

Abstract

After almost a decade of alternating periods of very low inflation and deflation in the euro area, in autumn 2021 inflation reached its highest level in 13 years. This sharp spike in inflation in the last months of 2021 and much more so in 2022 is of great concern to the economic staffs of governments, central banks, the academic community and of course households and businesses, making it the central economic problem of the day at the global level. This paper tries to answer the central question of what are the reasons that have driven and continue to drive the specific inflation path in the euro area and Greece. It starts with a presentation of the revised monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank and continues with a detailed, year-by-year presentation of the evolution of inflation in Greece and the euro area from early 2020 to April 2022. It examines the contribution to the inflationary phenomenon of factors such as: supply and demand shocks, global supply chain problems and the war in Ukraine. A comparison is made between the current situation and the 1970s - the last period in which inflation was both high and persistent. The conclusions refer to the causes of the phenomenon, the dilemmas of fiscal and monetary policy makers and the balancing act they have to perform in order to control inflation, avoid a slowdown or even a recession and maintain the sanctions imposed on Russia - objectives that are largely mutually contradictory.