Το διεθνές εμπόριο μετά την πανδημία

Abstract

This paper examines the future of global trade, in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic. Its goal, in addition to recording ongoing trends, is to highlight the complexity of the current situation, which is due to the simultaneous changes - technological, socio-political, geopolitical - that do not allow safe forecasts. Some analysts stated that globalization has been hit hard by the pandemic, while others that it has been accelerated, as individuals and companies browse the internet to communicate, collaborate and trade, making national borders less important. Furthermore, global value chains based on cheap labor are becoming less significant for western nations, while on the contrary they are still regarded as necessary to ensure resilience in future crises. All of the above are influenced by the 4th industrial revolution, whose many components and volume of information are by some countries hard to manage. At the same time the trading environment is becoming increasingly unstable because of the continuous expansion of China and the distress it creates in the Western bloc and also because of the war in Ukraine, which evokes memories and insecurities that had long been forgotten. In the above context, the aim of this paper is to study the degree of influence of these components. The basic premise of the work is that anticipating and managing global threats such as pandemics, war, global warming or cyber-attacks requires global cooperation, expanded international trade, and a more substantial globalization. Methodologically the work is based on the review of relevant articles, online research of the World Trade Organization, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the International Monetary Fund and the institutions of the European Union as well as tables and diagrams from studies published until 10 May 2022.